slug: "predictions/2022"
translates: "predictions/2022"
lang: en
title: "My predictions for 2022"
descriptions: "Well, here we are again. 2021 is almost over, and it was better than 2020, thank… well, you should probably thank *every* God just to cover your bases and make sure it doesn’t happen again. (And the biologists, too. They have a vial of smallpox and they know how to use it!)"
thumbnail: 0
pageCreated: "2021-12-25"
pageUpdated: "2022-12-25"
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ul#tally
li.correct
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/correct.png" alt="Correct.")
|
strong 8
| correct guesses
li.mixed
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/mixed.png" alt="Mixed results.")
|
strong 6
| mixed bags
li.wrong
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/wrong.png" alt="Wrong.")
|
strong 12
| false prophecies
p
| Well, here we are again. 2021 is almost over, and it was better than 2020, thank… well, you should probably thank
a(href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Deities")
em every
| God
| just to cover your bases and make sure it doesn’t happen again. (And the biologists, too. They have a vial of smallpox and they know how to use it!)
p So. What do i think might happen in 2022? Since you asked, here’s my list of predictions, in no particular order. Some of these i’m absolutely sure of; some of these are just a wild guess. I’ll come back at the end of the year and give each one a grade, from “aye” to “kinda” to “nah”.
h2 🦠 The pandemic 💉
ul
li.correct
strong There will be no mask or distancing mandate in England by the autumn equinox.
| The “plan
span.all-sc B
| ” measures will likely be relaxed at some point in March — perhaps earlier if Tory backbenchers get too fed up.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/correct.png" alt="Correct.")
| If anything, i was too bearish: England dropped its restrictions in February and never looked back.
li.correct
strong The booster jab rollout will proceed unremarkably
| , as we all silently accept that we’re just going to have to treat covid like the ’flu now.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/correct.png" alt="Correct.")
| Quadruple-jabbed and haven’t had to think about it ever. Maybe it’s different elsewhere, but here in the UK, you hardly hear a peep about covid these days.
li.wrong
strong Australia will continue being paranoid,
| but New Zealand will slowly start reducing restrictions.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/wrong.png" alt="Wrong.")
| Australia and New Zealand ended up lifting their restrictions at around the same time in the autumn.
h2 🦁 The United Kingdom 🦄
ul
li.correct
strong Queen Elizabeth will die.
| I say this every year, but i genuinely do think this will be the year — it’s not uncommon for widows to pass shortly after their spouses, and she’s been attending notably fewer public events recently. Some related predictions:
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/correct.png" alt="Correct.")
| Rest in peace, ma’am.
ul
li
strong
| Her death will be
em after
| the Platinum Jubilee celebrations
| , simply by virtue of them being relatively early on in the year. Nevertheless, it’ll put something of a damper on the national mood.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/correct.png" alt="Correct.")
| Indeed it was and indeed it did, though the public went from grief to shouting “God save the King!” quicker than i’d expected.
li.wrong
strong Somebody famous will get sacked
| as a result of ill-advised commentary, probably from the
span.all-sc BBC
| .
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/wrong.png" alt="Wrong.")
| Everything went according to
abbr(title="translator’s note: keikaku means plan") keikaku
| for the Beeb. The closest we got was a U.S.-American university professor being edgy on Twitter, and she didn’t even lose her job!
li.wrong
strong Boris Johnson will muddle along as prime minister
| despite intra-party discontent.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/wrong.png" alt="Wrong.")
| Not only did Bozza get the boot, but his lettuce-like successor set the record for Britain’s shortest-serving leader.
li.wrong
strong A terrorist attack of some kind will occur in Northern Ireland.
| Tensions have been rising for some time, and, though nobody wants it to happen, one can’t escape the feeling that it will.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/wrong.png" alt="Wrong.")
| Some attempted killings and bomb threats here and there, but overall the year had a death toll of 0 from terrorism. I’m glad to be wrong.
li.mixed
| In the local elections:
ul
li
strong.correct The Lib Dems will make gains
| ,
strong.correct Labour will also make gains, but not as much
| , and
strong the Reform Party and Ukip will backslide
| .
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/mixed.png" alt="Mixed results.")
| Pretty good going for the most part, but the Reform party
em technically
| made gains by going from zero council seats to two.
li.wrong
strong A refugee from Hong Kong will get elected to a local council.
| Just a feeling.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/wrong.png" alt="Wrong.")
| Nothing that i can find.
li.mixed
strong Someone who is neither male nor female will get elected to a relatively major position
| and the press will have a paddy over it.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/mixed.png" alt="Mixed results.")
| Ehh… not really? Bangor already had a non-binary mayor, and a Green councillor in Monmouthshire
a(href="https://www.monmouthshire.gov.uk/2022/12/monmouthshire-county-council-announces-its-first-lgbtq-champion/") seems to have come out some time after the election
| , but it doesn’t look like anyone publicly out at the time was elected, and the tabloids didn’t particularly care.
h2 🦅 The United States 🗽
ul
li.wrong
strong The Democrats get absolutely pummelled in the midterms
| , as Biden’s popularity flags and roadblocks in the Senate prevent much from passing.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/wrong.png" alt="Wrong.")
| I should have trusted the plan. Thank you, Dark Brandon.
li.wrong
strong Donald Trump will have a major figure excommunicated from the Republican party,
| likely a potential 2024 candidate. Ron DeSantis? Mitch McConnell? Himself? Who knows!
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/wrong.png" alt="Wrong.")
| The opposite now looks likely. Mr Trump’s chosen candidates flopped against their Democratic opponents, and Mr DeSantis’ popularity among the
span.all-sc GOP
| continues to rise.
li.wrong
strong Kyle Rittenhouse will run for Congress.
| This will somehow be the
em least
| stupid thing to happen in the United States in 2022.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/wrong.png" alt="Wrong.")
| Mr Rittenhouse is not actually old enough to run for Congress. 2024 — mark my words.
li.mixed
strong Several people will die at the hands of a or many “QAnon” adherents.
| Mass bleach-drinking? Someone shoots up that pizza place again? We’ll have to wait and see.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/mixed.png" alt="Mixed results.")
| A man from suburban Detroit
a(href="https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/oakland-county/2022/09/11/walled-lake-man-killed-police-after-killing-wife-shooting-daughter/8058356001/") shot and killed his wife and dog
| in the year’s only death which i could
em directly
| attribute to QAnon — a tragedy to be sure, but not “several people”.
h2 🌍 The rest of the world 🌏
ul
li.correct
strong Xi Jinping will shit himself.
| Okay, not
em literally
| , but many world leaders will likely make efforts to distance themselves from the Chinese government.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/correct.png" alt="Correct.")
| He replaced his advisors with yes-men. The U.S. cut off China’s semiconductor industry from the world. And his government’s zero-covid policies were so disastrous they led to a rare public protest. 2022 was a very bad, no good year for Winnie-the-Pooh.
ul
li.mixed
strong A multinational company will close its offices in Hong Kong
| due to concerns about civil liberties.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/mixed.png" alt="Mixed results.")
| Virgin Atlantic and Salesforce closed their doors — but the former cited declining profitability, and the latter wanted to pivot to the mainland, hardly a sign of concern for the city’s people.
li.correct
strong Emmanuel Macron will be reëlected as president of France.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/correct.png" alt="Correct.")
| I blame the chest hair photoshoot myself.
li.wrong
strong
| The
a(href="https://www.euronews.com/culture/2021/12/09/notre-dame-restoration-plans-to-be-announced-as-controversy-continues") Notre Dame redesign plans
| will be quietly replaced with something more in keeping with the building’s historic layout.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/wrong.png" alt="Wrong.")
| The current compromise is here to stay.
li.wrong
strong Gay marriage will be legalised in another Asian or African country.
| We’re coming for you,
em Uganda!
| (It won’t be Uganda.)
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/wrong.png" alt="Wrong.")
| Thailand’s parliament took tepid steps towards legalisation, but the year’s big success story was instead in Cuba.
h2 📱 Technology (sorry) 💽
ul
li.mixed
strong The “metaverse”
| will neither be a gigantic flop nor as big as its proponents hope. Some people will quietly adopt virtual office spaces, teenagers will get
span.all-sc VR
| headsets for their birthday, and furries will continue being furries, but there will be no great revolution.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/mixed.png" alt="Mixed results.")
| I can’t give this a yes-or-no mark in good faith — the way i phrased the prediction, it’s the sort of thing that will play out over the next decade rather than the last year. Whoops. In any case, Facebook’s “metaverse” app was widely panned by critics, whereas its flashy new hardware has been praised for its specs and hand-tracking capabilities. We’ll see where
span.all-sc VR
| goes.
li.correct
strong
| The
span.all-sc NFT
| bubble will burst.
| Sorry, i mean, uh… the token that represents your claim of ownership to a jpeg of the
span.all-sc NFT
| bubble will burst?
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/correct.png" alt="Correct.")
| Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
li.correct
strong Someone will announce a mid-range or “budget” folding phone,
| opening the floodgates to more widespread adoption. Probably Xiaomi.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/correct.png" alt="Correct.")
| Xiaomi released a thin-ass pholding phone… in Europe and Asia. So too did sanction-racked Huawei and apparently-still-around Motorola. Only time will tell if they’ll take off or if the Yankee public will cringe at the hinge.
h2 🎬 Entertainment 💿
ul
li.wrong
strong
i Avatar 2
| will bomb
| and possibly kill James Cameron’s career. Really: who on earth is actually
em excited
| by the idea of an
i Avatar
| sequel? Someone? Anyone?
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/wrong.png" alt="Wrong.")
| As i write this,
i Avatar: The Way of Water
| has made 700 million dollars and counting, and it’s still in the early days of its release. Mr Cameron’s career will be just fine.
li.wrong
strong
| The year’s blockbusters will largely be
em fine
| .
| Nothing great, nothing terrible. Wow, another Marvel sequel? I’d have never guessed!
a(href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xx97DuHGr2o")
| That one where the moon crashes into the
span.theonym Earth
| might be good dumb fun.
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/wrong.png" alt="Wrong.")
| Three words:
i Top Gun: Maverick
| .
li.mixed
strong Someone will drop the album of the decade.
| You hear those rumours about Kendrick Lamar?
.verdict
img.icon(src="/predictions/2022/mixed.png" alt="Mixed results.")
| Mr Lamar and Beyoncé dropped two well-reviewed records after a long sabbatical from music. Online nerds loved Black Country, New Road’s
i Ants From Up There
| . But the former two are far from their authors’ most acclaimed, and the latter failed to shore up critics at year’s end. I’ll be surprised if any decade-end lists have a 2022 album at the top spot.